Large Scale Numerical Simulations Of Northern Chile For Seismic Risk Assessment : Application To Mejillones Case - 2023/2028

Large-scale numerical simulations applied to northern Chile, with a focus on Mejillones, enable more precise seismic risk assessment in one of the country’s most exposed regions. The Mejillones area lies adjacent to a subduction zone segment with a high probability of generating earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8.5, making it a natural laboratory for risk studies.

These simulations integrate geophysical models, fault data, and local soil conditions, reproducing rupture scenarios and seismic wave propagation. This allows for the identification of amplification effects in sedimentary basins, variations in ground motion intensity, and potential damage to critical infrastructure. The results also help validate seismic hazard maps and guide emergency planning and structural design.

In Mejillones, where port activity and exposed populations are concentrated, these tools are essential for anticipating impacts and strengthening urban resilience. Ultimately, large-scale numerical modeling not only enhances the scientific understanding of seismic risk, but also provides practical inputs for territorial management and disaster reduction.

Program: Scientific Cooperation Program

Project Duration: 36 months

Principal Investigator: Wolfram Michael Andreas Oliver Jahn